Emotional and State Changes Due to Conditions: The True Nature of Confidence


As an instinctive judgment related to survival,

When one feels that they have gained a benefit (corresponding to pleasurable conditions), they feel “pleasure.”

When one feels harmed (corresponding to unpleasant conditions), they feel “displeasure.”

Based on experience and inference (associating information),

When one feels there is a possibility of gaining a benefit (corresponding to beneficial conditions), they feel happy, excited, and become proactive.

When one feels there is a possibility of danger, such as injury or death (corresponding to dangerous conditions), they feel scared, anxious, and become passive.

Receiving information from the environment (observing the situation) -> Predicting the corresponding pleasurable or unpleasant conditions from the associated information (i.e., corresponding to beneficial or dangerous conditions).

  • Predicting a benefit (beneficial conditions) -> Feeling happy, excited, proactive, and pursuing.
  • Predicting danger (dangerous conditions) -> Feeling scared, anxious, passive, and avoiding.


List of State Changes Based on Situational Predictions

Beneficial Conditions (Possibility of Benefit)
A: Strengthening of Beneficial Conditions (Pleasure Expectation: Predicting a high possibility of gaining a benefit)
-> a. Feeling joy, excitement, energy, proactiveness, optimism, and pursuit.
B: Removal of Beneficial Conditions (No Pleasure Expectation: Predicting a high possibility of not gaining a benefit)
-> b. Feeling down, sad, disenchanted, lamenting, (angry).

Dangerous Conditions (Possibility of Danger)
C: Removal of Dangerous Conditions (Displeasure Avoidance Expectation: Predicting a high possibility of avoiding danger)
-> c. Returning to normal (feeling confident, having composure, feeling relaxed, secure, calm).
D: Strengthening of Dangerous Conditions (Displeasure Expectation: Predicting a high possibility of suffering danger)
-> d. Feeling scared, panicked, anxious, tense, passive, pessimistic, evasive, (angry).

Note: The normal state (when neither benefit nor danger is perceived) also corresponds to c.


For example, when participating in a bingo game and reaching a critical point, one predicts a high possibility of gaining a benefit and feels joy or excitement (A). Conversely, if a large and intimidating man approaches, there is a prediction of potential harm, leading to feelings of tension or anxiety (D).

(By the way, feeling sad when someone dies (b) is because a loved one (benefit) has passed away (no longer attainable), not because death is scary (d).)


Generally, states a and c are referred to as “confidence,” while states b and d are termed “lack of confidence.”

More detailed explanations about this will be provided in the section “Regarding Confidence.”



Regarding Confidence

The conclusion varies depending on how confidence is defined, but if we consider confidence as a sensation commonly felt by humans, then the commonly defined idea of “believing in one’s own worth and abilities” or the belief that “confidence correlates with physical prowess” is mistaken.

The essence of the emotion referred to as confidence is actually the “emotional response accompanying the prediction of outcomes based on experiences (past situations and their outcomes)” regarding a starting point (the beneficial or harmful aspects of a situation). In other words, it refers to the state change (from a to d) brought about by the anticipation of outcomes in a given situation.


× Common Definition of Confidence

  • Height of confidence = Proportional to physical prowess
  • Confidence as an emotion = Feeling of superiority or inferiority associated with physical prowess


○ True Nature of the Emotion Called Confidence

  • Height of confidence = Proportional to the anticipated outcomes based on experience
  • Confidence as an emotion = State change (emotion) associated with anticipated outcomes based on experience


Simply put, the greater the likelihood of outcomes such as A or C in a situation, the more “confident” one feels. Conversely, the more one believes that they cannot avoid outcomes like B or D, or that they are likely to occur, the more “lack of confidence” they experience.

We call the states of a and c “confidence,” and those of b and d “lack of confidence.”


In romantic terms, women instinctively gauge a man’s capability in his environment based on these states. When a man exhibits the a or c state, it suggests a high survival capability in his environment. Conversely, when he displays the b or d state, it implies a lower survival capability.

In essence, demonstrating an ability to avoid danger—indicative of the a and c states—allows for relaxation and confidence. On the other hand, suggesting an ability to gain benefits—typical of the a and c states—by displaying positive emotions during action, fosters a sense of the man’s value.



Self-Confidence Structure

Traditionally, “confidence” is often associated with one’s physical abilities—believing that they can achieve states a or c.

However, in reality, confidence stems from perceiving a high likelihood of achieving states a or c—irrespective of one’s own capabilities, but influenced by circumstances and chance.

Let’s explore this further by examining different scenarios:


Confidence in Potential Benefits

In situations where physical abilities are irrelevant—such as playing Bingo to win prizes—novices may not feel confident at first.

However, if someone has won the top prize in Bingo four times before, they may feel confident about winning again. Conversely, if they’ve never even come close to winning, their confidence might be low.

In essence, confidence arises from past experiences rather than physical prowess. This often results in what’s colloquially known as “baseless confidence,” formed from similar past experiences that predict favorable outcomes.

  • Misconception: Confidence increases with physical abilities.
  • Reality: Confidence increases when one believes they can surpass the expected outcome.


Confidence in Potential Risks

In situations where physical abilities seem relevant—like assessing whether one can jump over a river—the perception of confidence is influenced by one’s perceived jumping ability compared to the river’s width.

Initially, confidence might be high if one believes they can jump farther than the river’s width. Conversely, confidence might decrease as the river’s width exceeds one’s jumping ability.

In reality, confidence is dictated not by ability but by the prediction regarding the starting point (in this case, the river’s width). Thus, it’s not directly proportional to physical abilities.

  • Misconception: Confidence increases with physical abilities.
  • Reality: Confidence increases when the starting point is lower (i.e., when one believes they can surpass it).

As a note, the lack of confidence in scenarios with obviously narrow river widths might stem from comparing oneself to others rather than considering individual capabilities. This will be further discussed later.



The Presence of Confidence is Dependent on Predictions

Confidence, as an emotion, is not influenced by physical abilities but rather by predictions regarding potential outcomes (benefits or risks).

For instance, in scenarios where positive outcomes are anticipated, individuals feel confident, while in situations where negative outcomes are expected, confidence diminishes.

This concept applies universally:

Consider playing Bingo, where confidence arises from predicting favorable outcomes based on past experiences, regardless of one’s physical abilities.

Similarly, in scenarios like jumping over a river, confidence stems from predicting the avoidance of unfavorable outcomes rather than one’s jumping ability.

In summary:

  • Confidence arises from anticipating positive outcomes, regardless of one’s abilities.
  • Confidence diminishes when negative outcomes are predicted.

This emphasizes that confidence is an emotional response based on predictions about potential outcomes rather than a reflection of one’s abilities.

  • No Predictions: No change in confidence (emotional state remains unchanged).
  • Predicting Positive Outcomes: Confidence increases.
  • Predicting Negative Outcomes: Confidence decreases.

Thus, confidence is shaped by predictions influenced by past experiences. Individuals with more positive past experiences tend to exhibit higher confidence in similar situations, while those with negative experiences may display lower confidence.

Experience Examples:

  • Similar Experiences: Previous success in romantic endeavors, like being liked by another attractive individual.
  • Related Experiences: Positive interactions with attractive individuals, such as being smiled at or engaging in lively conversations.



Confidence Arises from Recognizing the Starting Point

The emotion termed “confidence” (a change in state) arises from the “predictions about outcomes in a given situation.” In essence, confidence, or its absence, emerges (or can be assessed) only when the “starting point” or the context that serves as the basis for predictions is recognized.

  • Recognition of the Starting Point: Leads to the emergence of confidence.
  • Absence of Recognition of the Starting Point: Confidence does not emerge.


For instance, if there is a river in front of you but you have no need to cross it, you may not consciously consider your confidence in jumping over it.

However, if you need to cross the river to reach your destination or if someone asks you, “Can you jump over that river?”—recognition of the starting point occurs, leading to the emergence of confidence based on subsequent predictions.

  • Presence of a River: Confidence in the ability to jump over it arises only when the possibility of crossing it is contemplated.
  • Need to Cross the River: Confidence in the ability to jump over it emerges based on predictions about whether it can be crossed.

This remains consistent regardless of the width of the river, whether it’s 1cm, 2m, or 100m wide.



Additional Explanation: Utilizing Social Responses as the Starting Point

Following the logic above, if the starting point is a 1 cm wide river, meaning if someone asks, “Can you jump over a 1 cm wide river?”, confidence should theoretically arise. However, in reality, confidence is less likely to be felt.

The reason for this is that people generally think, “It’s normal for anyone to be able to jump over a 1 cm wide river.” In other words, the starting point shifts from “Can I jump over a 1 cm wide river?” to “Can people jump over a 1 cm wide river?”

  • Starting point: “Can I jump over a 1 cm wide river?” = I can jump over the river ⇒ I feel confident
  • Starting point: “Can people jump over a 1 cm wide river?” = I am not surpassing others ⇒ I do not feel confident


Due to the significance of interpersonal interactions in human life, there’s a tendency to consider others as a reference point (the starting point) and consequently gauge confidence based on social comparisons (response utilization). This can lead to assessing confidence not based on the immediate problem but on one’s position within the social group (social status).

While this tendency stems from innate competitive instincts, overcoming it can lead to smoother outcomes.

  • Comparing Oneself to Others: Feeling inferior → Reduced performance and difficulty achieving success.
  • Focusing Solely on Addressing Problems Without Comparisons: Maintaining confidence regardless of others’ performance → Mental resilience, leading to better performance.



Confidence or Lack Thereof Due to Comparison with Others

Starting Point: Comparing oneself to a significant aspect (ability) in that situation,

Feeling Superior (Advantageous): Feeling confident (gaining confidence) and relaxed when sensing superiority (safe) over others,

Feeling Inferior (Disadvantageous): Feeling anxious and losing composure (losing confidence) when sensing inferiority (unsafe) compared to others.


① For instance, in a bowling tournament, individuals unconsciously tend to compare bowling skill and score, not speed, IQ, or the number of past romantic partners.

   – Bowling Tournament: Bowling becomes the starting point (important aspect in the situation).


② If one’s average score is 150, having a tournament participant’s average score of 100 brings confidence, while an average score of 200 diminishes it.

   – Own Score 150: Confidence arises with others’ score at 100 and decreases with others’ score at 200.

If one’s average score is 80, having a tournament participant’s average score of 30 brings confidence, while an average score of 130 diminishes it.

   – Own Score 80: Confidence arises with others’ score at 30 and decreases with others’ score at 130.



Misconception of Confidence = Physical Ability

The reason why higher physical ability is generally associated with higher confidence is due to intra-species competition.

Competitions such as food acquisition, mate selection, and territory dominance among individuals of the same species typically favor those with higher physical ability. Consequently, individuals tend to feel more secure (thus gaining confidence) when their physical ability surpasses that of others of the same species, while feeling more insecure (thus losing confidence) when their physical ability is lower.

However, this perception is solely based on comparisons with other individuals:

  • A. When there are no other individuals for comparison, the confidence in relation to those individuals does not arise.
  • B. When there are other individuals for comparison, the ability of those individuals becomes the standard. Therefore, feeling more secure (thus higher confidence) occurs when the compared individuals have lower abilities, whereas feeling more insecure (thus lower confidence) occurs when the compared individuals have higher abilities.


“A. When there are no other individuals for comparison, the confidence in relation to those individuals does not arise.”

For instance, confidence does not arise when the starting point (ability) that is not consciously compared to others includes factors such as the shape of internal organs, the beauty of snoring sounds, the scent of blood, the taste of skin, the hardness of teeth, the angle when holding a teacup, or the number of breaths taken while running.


“B. When there are other individuals for comparison, the ability of those individuals becomes the standard for confidence.”

In the presence of others, feeling superior (confident) compared to those individuals leads to reassurance, while feeling inferior (lacking confidence) leads to insecurity. However, this comparison is based on the starting point (significant factor in the environment), which is not limited to simple physical ability.

For example, in sports competitions, the comparison is about skill in sports; in tests, it’s about academic abilities; in gaming sessions, it’s about gaming skills; when standing in line, it’s about height comparison; and when considering appearance, it’s about looks comparison.

In reality, there are individuals who lack confidence despite high abilities and those who have confidence despite low abilities. Therefore, confidence is purely based on the result of predictions concerning the starting point, and understanding that the starting point serves as the basis enables one to control confidence by controlling the starting point.